Hi,

is there any speculation or knowledge about the probability distribution of rune levels if you craft with level 1 runes?
Say I craft a level 5 with 3 level 1 runes, the chances to get level 6 are 25%. But what are the chances for level 5 and level ?

@Frunobulax I can't help you with the percentages, but I would say if you don't care about the high level rune, does it really matter. For example, at the moment, I don't use life runes on anyone except Ouros, so I have been converting them into speed runes. I have not kept track, but it seemed to more likely to stay the same or drop one level than drop two levels.

@Frunobulax said in Rune crafting:

Hi,

is there any speculation or knowledge about the probability distribution of rune levels if you craft with level 1 runes?
Say I craft a level 5 with 3 level 1 runes, the chances to get level 6 are 25%. But what are the chances for level 5 and level ?

Through lots of testing and data analysis, percentages breakdown roughly:

50% you will get a Level and 50% will downgrade to a IV.

Of course this is highly dependent on the random number generator SP is using. Cyclically it goes through phases where runes always downgrade, specials always happen, etc.

@Keith-Romberg said in Rune crafting:

@Frunobulax said in Rune crafting:

Of course this is highly dependent on the random number generator SP is using. Cyclically it goes through phases where runes always downgrade, specials always happen, etc.

Truth lol

If you have my luck you can turn a level 8 rune into a level 3 ha ha ha... I spent an entire day watching that rune go down down down

@Suzznee said in Rune crafting:

If you have my luck you can turn a level 8 rune into a level 3 ha ha ha... I spent an entire day watching that rune go down down down

Been there, done that way too often. I am sure that is by luck and not design.

I have had periods of several weeks when I couldn't craft past Lvl 6 and anytime I throw something higher in the mix, it will downgrade. However, then I will always have periods of good luck like last week when I managed to craft 3 Lvl 9s - as I often advise other players, persistence is the key and alternate save crafting with gambling....

@Frunobulax What we need in this discussion is a statistician. There MUST be at least one statistician that plays this game. While I am not, it is not a big deal to compile some averages. I am working on that now. I wish, I had started maybe a week ago, when I had done a ton of crafting. I don't have enough data points to even suggest a normal curve. When I have more info, I will post it.