Is it just me or anyone else has this problem
When i craft usin 1 1 1 method there is a 25 % chance of upgrade means 1/4
But why when i do:
1 1 1 3 : downgrade to 2
3 3 3 4 : downgrade to 3
1 2 3 4 : downgrade to 3
2 2 2 1 : downgrade to 1
Ive waste over 300 runes and still the same resutats

25% means always 25%, it's not guaranteed to upgrade

At least i shpuld get upgrade, i only lose runes , from lvl 8 to 1....

@HiJack-ER Periodically you just don't seem to get any upgrades and heaps of downgrades. Whenever my luck isn't on my side with rune gambling, I take a few days break from crafting. Also, doing the odd 1111 = 2 before doing the 111x seems to help a bit. Switching colours while gambling seems to help too. Ultimately, don't gamble what you can't afford to lose

@HiJack-ER I agree with DavidML. Dont keep trying if your "luck"is not in. I find doing 1111=2 and 2222=3 a few times then do 1114 for a 5 if it goes to 3 either try again 1114 for 5. Ive got some 7s doing 1116 but also 1114 to a 2. I take a break and back to 1111=2

Why do people gamble?

I only craft using 4 of the same runes.

100% guarantee of what you get.

@GrnXnham said in Runes bug?:

Why do people gamble?

I only craft using 4 of the same runes.

100% guarantee of what you get.

Because you do get a higher rune on that odd chance. And using 4-4's to create a 5 is nice when the off chance that using 3-1's and a 4 will give you a 5 and you have 3 more 4's with a chance at a 5. I am not thrilled with gambling but the chance at a higher rune is always tempting.

Ok just to add a little info here, 25% odds does NOT mean 1 out of 4. It means there is a 25% chance on each and every crafting. Think of it this way a roulette wheel with 4 spots on it, you spin the wheel and you have a 25% chance of landing on a number, you could spin that wheel 100 times and it never land on the number you pick but that doesn't change the 25% percent chance on any spin. So success and failure on one attempt really has no impact on the next attempt. It truely is "gambling". good luck and I hope you get better results soon.

@David-ML said in Runes bug?:

@HiJack-ER Periodically you just don't seem to get any upgrades and heaps of downgrades. Whenever my luck isn't on my side with rune gambling, I take a few days break from crafting. Also, doing the odd 1111 = 2 before doing the 111x seems to help a bit. Switching colours while gambling seems to help too. Ultimately, don't gamble what you can't afford to lose

Honestly David!? Do you really think this? Maybe it does, I don't think so. Without actual stats showing doing one method versus the other, anything else is just guessing.

@HiJack-ER I do not have the small amount of stats that I was able to collect on this, but what I found what that if you use 3 level ones and one level 2 it probably is as they indicate about a 44% chance of getting a level 3. The remaining chance is that you will get a level 2 or 1. It does not matter how often that happens as long as you are making money, by which I mean that the number of level 3s you will create will more than compensate for the runes lost when they downgrade to 1 or 2. I am working on team speed crafting today. I will post my results when I reach at least 30 craftings.

@Kaiju I actually get better results with high runes say 3x1 and 1x5 for a 6. Worst I get is 4 so dont try again but usually get 6 in 2 or 3 goes so usually still worth it.

@Kaiju There are lots of theories around how to influence rune gambling. What I can say from observation (not hard number crunching) is that results seem to clump. I suspect that this has something to do with the RNG in the game. Same reason why we get multiple consecutive misses or specials. So the theory behind doing 1/1/1/1 = 2 when getting lots of downcrafts is to reset the RNG. Who knows whether it really works, but it definitely gives you a break from losing!

The other theory is that using 2/2/2/x or 3/3/3/x with x being 6-9 is that you reduce the chance of downcrafting, not necessarily the chance of upcrafting. Having done this for many months now, I believe that there is something to it.

Oh and the given % chance for upcraft is probably about right providing you do enough repeats. And this I have done during rune events with 1/1/1/3 when I did 50 or more at a time and it confirmed a chance of around 30%. In actual fact, you end up converting almost 50% as you get a second chance on any sidecraft!

On a balance, while rune gambling can be extremely frustrating, it's also the only way to craft higher level runes!!! Oh, and it does work if you do it consistently and long enough....

@HiJack-ER
OK, here are my stats thus far, I wanted to wait till I had at least 30 observations. These are the results for crafting 3 level one team speeds with 1 level two team speed in the following layout: 1,1,2,1

Note that SP says the chance for crafting a level 3 is 44%. I am no statistician, but I imagine that as my number of observations increases, it should get closer to that number. I know that early on, for a short period, the percentage was actually above 50%, but it all evens out in the end. So all of that to say, that crafting is definitely worth it. If you figure out the cost of crafting a rune without mixing levels then you will see that you actually save money.

Edit at 12 noon EST, currently have 25 of 50 level 3s!

@Kaiju said in Runes bug?:

@HiJack-ER
OK, here are my stats thus far, I wanted to wait till I had at least 30 observations. These are the results for crafting 3 level one team speeds with 1 level two team speed in the following layout: 1,1,2,1

Note that SP says the chance for crafting a level 3 is 44%. I am no statistician, but I imagine that as my number of observations increases, it should get closer to that number. I know that early on, for a short period, the percentage was actually above 50%, but it all evens out in the end. So all of that to say, that crafting is definitely worth it. If you figure out the cost of crafting a rune without mixing levels then you will see that you actually save money.

Edit at 12 noon EST, currently have 25 of 50 level 3s!

Thank you for running this test.

So if SP's numbers are correct (and your test is showing it is close) you lose ground 56% of the time when mixing different runes. In your test, getting a level 1 or 2 rune after crafting is losing ground or "down-crafting."

Given this, it makes sense to continue to only craft runes when I have four of the same type. With a 44% chance of upgrade, it is close but not worth risking the down-craft.

@GrnXnham said in Runes bug?:

Given this, it makes sense to continue to only craft runes when I have four of the same type. With a 44% chance of upgrade, it is close but not worth risking the down-craft.

Actually you are wrong in this regard. If you calculate the gold cost of the runes it IS better to craft. Let's assume you buy all the runes at 500k each. The cost to make a level 2 rune is 2M and the cost to make a level 3 rune is 8M.

When I do the mixed level crafting and it creates a level 1, then I have lost 2 level 1s and one level 2. That means that I have lost 3M in gold.
When it creates a level 2, then I have lost 3 level 1s. That means I have lost 1.5M.
When it creates a level 3, then I have lost nothing. I gain a level 3 that would have cost 8M and only paid 3.5M (the cost of 3 ones and 1 two), so my gain in value is 4.5M.

So my loss when creating ones and twos is (13 * -3) + (11 * -1.5) and my gain is (18 * 4.5)

So I save money:
(13 * -3) + (11 * -1.5) + (18 * 4.5)
-39 -16.5 +81 = 25.5
So by doing this, I am ahead of the game by 25.5 million.

@HiJack-ER OK, here are my final stats after finishing all of my team speed crafting. My results are higher than the expected 44% chance, but until my observations are up to say 1000, I would say I got lucky rather than the chance is not in fact 44% as stated.

Wow... thank you guys for all your answer i didnt thought that much answers
... thx anyway

From what I can see rune gambling is exactly as advertised. I have never seen any evidence to substantiate the superstitious bull and gambler fallacies about rune crafting that keep floating around, driven by the human nature to want to be able to influence their own fate. If you rune gamble, you are a victim to odds, numbers and luck. If results clump that also is normal. Stopping or continuing however, has no influence on that either. Craft 10 runes and you may end up with 10 upgrades or 10 downgrades. Craft 100.000 runes and you will end up very close to the advertised percentage.

As a sidenote: this is also why the chests with relics are 'evil'. The only way to 'force' the odds to be close to what is advertised, you need to buy many. Otherwise it is a gamble and a very expensive one at that.

@Ekto-Gamat Perhaps but rune crafting doesn't cost me anything and I get high lvl runes cheaper than using the 100% rule. Whereas I wholly agree with you about the chests. Real money even if you use the free gems is a real gamble. I sure don't do that