Wars have become so messed up there unplayable if it’s not missing every hit every single war it’s the enemy getting there special 100 times out of 100 becoming comical now our whole team talks about it and 3 times now I have had an enemy getting a 3 turn in a row after being stunned now I don’t use nautilus so don’t know what move does he have that gives him 3 turns in a row of course last 1 will be his special now fox or any mods do not give stock answer no changes because these wars as I have said have become pointless to play

Nautilus have a move called "pray becomes hunter" he gets 1 extra turn for as many enemies he have against him. 3 extra turns if he does it versus 3 enemies. This is the reason many like him as one of the best epics.

@joohnzy thanx for reply thought I read something about that happened with strongman as well though plus misses and them getting specials have become unplayable

Hi @callumarachnoid,

There was no change regarding missed attacks.
I know how Team Wars are important so it tends to be more noticeable when monsters miss. Or is it happening in other parts of the game?
From my experience, I have experienced this in one of the dungeons in two battles but then it went back to normal, I think it was just a bad luck on my part.

@Fox thanx for replying fox but there has definitely been a change the misses have become way way to frequent my whole team just laughs about it now as it has become normal practice people on this site have also spoken about it something has been done somewhere like last time when sp said no change can’t recall what it was but kept saying no nothing had changed then ah wait it has changed

@callumarachnoid said in What is happening with wars:

@Fox thanx for replying fox but there has definitely been a change the misses have become way way to frequent my whole team just laughs about it now as it has become normal practice people on this site have also spoken about it something has been done somewhere like last time when sp said no change can’t recall what it was but kept saying no nothing had changed then ah wait it has changed

There is a difference in that they were working at the AI and a "switch" or a "button" was pushed and that was to early, in this case there is no talk about changing accuracy so think we have to take @fox word for it.

also I war b2b and I dont have that experience maybe sometimes other things that dont work like they should, like unresolved glitches but no abnormal amount of misses.

If you and your team feel there is something off you or one of your teammates can maybe record some matches, a picture or in this case a video says a 1000 words i believe the expression is

@Marianne-van-Es said in What is happening with wars:

If you and your team feel there is something off you or one of your teammates can maybe record some matches, a picture or in this case a video says a 1000 words i believe the expression is

Give us some hard data instead: chances of misses vs actual misses. A bunch of people whining in their own echo chambers about bad luck is not exactly enough for Fox to investigate.

One war I had a single target opening move miss completely 3 battles in a row (on Xiron even, imagine my joy). Which is a chance of 1/8.000 if the accuracy still is correct. In another war with the same account absolutely everything landed, including denial on tough monsters (against PoF even, imagine my joy). It's how things go, try this 1000 times and I am sure the number of misses will be approximately 50, as it should be.

More measuring, less moaning would be nice.

@Ekto-Gamat yep because I just like to come on here and have a good whine over nothing Lots of others have complained about the misses and sp no changes here move on nothing to see and yes I could spend all the time videoing or taking screenshots which would prove nothing and again would be told nothing to see here point is it has changed and no amount of well it doesn’t happen to my game will convince me different whine over

@callumarachnoid said in What is happening with wars:

@Ekto-Gamat yep because I just like to come on here and have a good whine over nothing Lots of others have complained about the misses and sp no changes here move on nothing to see and yes I could spend all the time videoing or taking screenshots which would prove nothing and again would be told nothing to see here point is it has changed and no amount of well it doesn’t happen to my game will convince me different whine over

@callumarachnoid Well, obviously you can believe whatever you want.

I will stick to hard data and base my world view on evidence of what actually is going on, and fortunately SP seems to be doing the same thing.

Provide SP with numbers that prove you are right. I certainly would be interested to see them as well. Otherwise do not be surprised that you can whine all you want, but that it will not give you anything more than a free lesson in basic science and an insight into your own observer biases and echo chambers.

@Ekto-Gamat basic science thought I was having a sensible conversation will no not to whine in future echo chambers

@callumarachnoid I have not noticed any change such as you have described in our team wars. Anecdotally, I have plenty of wars I think I 'should' win only to miss and have the enemy counter with their special. Very annoying. It happens. I also win quite a few where I was the underdog and got lucky so I think it evens out eventually.

I don't believe you're actually seeing the enemy get their special attacks 100 times out of 100 and assume you're being facetious. But if you are actually seeing this, please record some evidence. That would definitely be something SP would look into. I'd say even one battle where enemy lands 100% specials would be remarkable enough and you wouldn't have to keep recording.

@David-Bjurman-Birr Again not here for a debate or to spend time collecting all the data to prove my point I asked the question I got my answer I do not agree with it but that’s life once game becomes so unplayable I will do just that and not give it a second thought from my echo chamber still funny

hey @fox is there a time table to get around to fixing that extra turn bug with Nautilus anyway? I remember some talk about a year ago saying it was going to be fixed.

@testcyp said in What is happening with wars:

hey @fox is there a time table to get around to fixing that extra turn bug with Nautilus anyway? I remember some talk about a year ago saying it was going to be fixed.

Fixing Nautilus would be extremely easy, since all they have to do is copy/paste the correct snippet of code from Volray's 'Infinity Voltage', which had the same bug before they remedied that. SP has fixed much more complicated issues since they announced they were finally going to fix Nautilus.

Therefore my conclusion is that SP decided not to fix their best selling epic, but obviously will not openly admit to willingly leave a bug in one of their monsters just to boost sales.

@callumarachnoid the issue with ongoing misses or too many specials has come up again and again. And there are always two camps - those that are convinced something isn't right or has changed and those that want proof and are saying that it is all due to pure chance....

....after three years of playing and observing, I think both camps are a bit right. Yes, it is all due to chance and if you record 10,000 attacks and calculate the probability you will most likely get a result close to the advertised percentage, however, results tend to clump at times. This is why you sometimes get 50% misses with Voltaik despite him not under any effect. This is why you sometimes get 3 or 4 specials in a row. I think it is due to the RNG that SP is using....

...but ultimately, it always works both ways. Just now, I won a hopeless team war battle because each of my legendaries had a special, one after the other I always try to remember that when the enemy gets them the next time. However, it doesn't really help against being frustrated when it does happen!!!

For me its the same as the returning topic that 111 # in runes doesnt upgrade anymore because someone had bad luck 10 times in a row

@David-ML said in What is happening with wars:

however, results tend to clump at times. This is why you sometimes get 50% misses with Voltaik despite him not under any effect. This is why you sometimes get 3 or 4 specials in a row. I think it is due to the RNG that SP is using....

No, that also is simple statistics and has nothing to do with what SP implemented. In a sample of 10.000 it is extremely unlikely you will get a balanced result of A,B,C,D,E,A,B,C,D,E, et cetera.

Most often you will get something like A,B,C,C,C,A,A,B,C,C,C,C, D,A, et cetera.

Misses have increased without any doubt, but especially against higher lvl monsters.
The misses were higher as part of the lvl rules, but lately they have increased A LOT.
Is not a feeling or a subjective matter, it is a fact.
But we have always the 3 loyal submissive servants of whatever fox says. We all know who they are

@jacinto said in What is happening with wars:

Misses have increased without any doubt, but especially against higher lvl monsters.
The misses were higher as part of the lvl rules, but lately they have increased A LOT.
Is not a feeling or a subjective matter, it is a fact.
But we have always the 3 loyal submissive servants of whatever fox says. We all know who they are

I am no loyal, submissive servant of Fox, but of hard numbers, logic and reason.

@jacinto If its a fact then you have documented figures, stats, screens shots and video's to proof your point I believe those are called facts not the feelings of frustration you have that something is wrong and to call Ekto a submissive servant is beyond me but im probably one of the others so...

@Marianne-van-Es I think what everyone is getting at is there is definitely a change in the misses without doubt now we could do all the stats checks screenshots figures videos Point is I think the vast majority of players play because it’s fun doing all the graft just to prove what everyone knows and then be told just the same anyway nope no change move on nothing to see seems pointless again just to reiterate I accept what fox told me I do not agree like majority of others but again that’s life players will just get fed up with it and move on no big deal

@callumarachnoid The world just doesn't work this way. You think something is wrong. Fox says this isn't the case. Then it's up to you to provide evidence.

Similar to the situation when people observed a different ai behaviour in dungeons. People mentioned it. Fox said no. Several people started testing and provided data. Fox looked again. Fox admitted she was wrong.

So I really do not know what your problem is with writing down the number of misses oposed to the number of hits for single target attacks and AOE's. Does not take much work. You could have done it already instead of entertaining everyone on this forum with your posts in this thread. Does not take away any of the fun. You are in a position in which you are able to prove your point. Then do so, instead of keeping repeating that you are right just because you think so..

@Ekto-Gamat Again not here to entertain anyone asked a question got my answer I’m fine with that as I explained I want to play a game not analyse every bit of data write it down take screenshots I want to just enjoy a game I will spin it u prove to me there is no difference have fun taking data and screenshots

I have to agree with the majority here. The numbers even out eventually.
Now... if it happens that it is always your guys that miss the killing blows and your generals always getting denied, hey look, the opponent's didn't miss and their general's avoided your denies. It's not the game's fault that you and everybody else is just so unlucky.
See statistically correct? Excuse you!

Also, ever present company included, you are in the wrong place OP. You need certificates to prove you are not an elephant, hard evidence and the occasional video or it never happened.

I mean, i had Carlos tell me that effects are independent of hit/miss chance modifiers on a monster, while i have been playing this game since forever and he is in the team that makes it. Go figure.
I had fox tell me that blind and precision cancel eachother out and yet while under the effects of both you can hit a monster without hardened/tough/orc/bulwark etc trait and still miss the effect. They have a chance to miss they say, never happened ever before and never has since but ok, i don't have hard facts since i don't normally record every single second of my playtime, i must be at fault.

How about this: Enemy thetys is blinded and dazed and she does frosting sea monster that misses it's target and then proceeds to freeze 2 generals and a hardened monster. They will tell you again precision or blindness doesn't affect effect rolls.

Generally there is always a retort to any kind of complaint, legitimate or otherwise, and the ever present fallacy calling from certain members.

All i am trying to say to you OP and anybody else who even thinks about voicing any sort of concern or frustration, just don't. Not here. Not unless you got the certificates proving you are not an elephant, and even then, trust me, you will be proven otherwise.

Reality is what it is. Subjective perspective is coloured by all sorts of things, but data does not lie. It can be misunderstood or misinterpreted of course. But it cannot be understood unless it is collected and examined. Personally, I do get enjoyment from trying to work out what is happening in many circumstances, and why. An analytic approach to a game like this is obviously not everyone's cup of tea, but I can't keep my silence when phrases like "everyone knows" are used to support a subjective view.

First off, many people have little understanding of probability. Which is perplexing in this age of information, where nothing is more than a google search away. But it is also why casinos make money, and they do, so obviously probability science doesn't get much regard.

Ekto is completely right that random events within a set range are not uniformly distributed. A % chance of something happening or not happening is only demonstrated over a very large dataset. A 50% chance of red or black coming up on the roulette wheel does not mean that red will come up if the previous spin was black. Google Monte Carlo Fallacy and watch the coin toss simulation on wikipedia for a bit.

This means a 10% chance of missing can manifest a miss several times in a short period without any concern that the % chance is wrong. Only a large set of data can validate or invalidate the stated percentage.

Which leads to perception bias. We tend to remember when things go wrong, and not when things go as we expect. How often have we seen a post about a long streak without misses? Never. Yet it does happen. Point in case: current war, first battle, I hit all enemies with an opening 90% accuracy AoE and with a following 90% accuracy AoE, then hit with a 95% accuracy single target attack, then got my Special (5% chance). That is 7 opportunities to miss, without missing, followed by a low chance manifesting once out of four opportunities. That does not mean the chance of getting a Special is 25%. It is still 5%, but I got lucky.

There are two ways to assess whether there have been any changes to the stated %s. The first is to ask the people who set them. Fox has said they have not changed. This assessment is subject to human error and therefore imperfect. But it has weight nonetheless. The second is to amass and analyze data. If there is no desire to do that, fair enough. But absent that, there is no reason to take a subjective assessment as validly reflecting an assertion that anything has changed.

That is really all I intend saying on this thread.

@C0ntr1v3d said in What is happening with wars:

There are two ways to assess whether there have been any changes to the stated %s. The first is to ask the people who set them. Fox has said they have not changed. This assessment is subject to human error and therefore imperfect. But it has weight nonetheless. The second is to amass and analyze data. If there is no desire to do that, fair enough. But absent that, there is no reason to take a subjective assessment as validly reflecting an assertion that anything has changed.

fox has been wrong before, and she is paid to say what she does. if she has knowledge of how things work then it is just dust in the eyes.
one way or the other the weight value on critical and dubious game workings of what she says is negligible taken SPs stance through representatives and support trying to prove the fault always lies with the customer.

have they changed it? have they not? are percentages the same on defense and on offense? are effects additive? multiplicative? a little bit of both depending on the case? we will never know since every time the subject has been broached it's been met with canned and dismissive answers and a troupe of fanbois that support sp claiming statistical fallacies.

hard facts:

• the rolls are not shown in the game so they cannot be recorded
• the exact mechanics are never known to players so anybody can pick and chose whichever explanation fits their side each time
• you don't know what is happening since the system-works or the representatives of sp are not transparent
• some people chose to question fervently with but a suspicion or a whisper of unfairness or general change and some chose to defend sp as if they were their closest relatives unquestioningly and zealously

think about it

@Rage You still can keep record on what happens in pvp/wars/dungeons or if you have done that write your findings here i dont think that anyone here will dispute it

@Marianne-van-Es said in What is happening with wars:

@Rage You still can keep record on what happens in pvp/wars/dungeons or if you have done that write your findings here i dont think that anyone here will dispute it

all i am trying to say is that what is happening here is two sides of people that don't really know what is REALLY happening are fighting about who is right and who is wrong. nobody is, or one of them is, but there simply isn't a way to know. and still they are fighting as if their lives depend on it.
all this is like trying to convince a person that believes the earth is flat that it is in fact a globe.
hey, one thing is sure. we are customers and SP is getting money from all of us.

here is the kicker: one side of the flat-earthers is bullying another kind of flat-earther for voicing their concerns that maybe, just maybe, the earth might be a globe.

see where i am going with this? SP is not your friend, let the guy say his peace without bullying him, because at the end of the day, you both are flat-earthers.

@Rage Ok now im going off-topic too, maybe it wasnt nice to use the words "whining in their own echo chambres", but about asking for facts and dont see bullying there, I see bullying in calling people submissive servants (not by OP) or troupe of fanbois so lets all not do that.

For me it was a question was asked and answered and suggestion's were made to proof a point

and i think its now time to close the topic before it gets toxic